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概率逻辑与概率归纳。

Probability logic and probabilistic induction.

作者信息

Greenland S

机构信息

Department of Epidemiology, UCLA School of Public Health, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1772, USA.

出版信息

Epidemiology. 1998 May;9(3):322-32.

PMID:9583426
Abstract

This article reviews some philosophical aspects of probability and describes how probability logic can give precise meanings to the concepts of inductive support, corroboration, refutation, and related notions, as well as provide a foundation for logically sound statistical inference. Probability logic also provides a basis for recognizing prior distributions as an integral component of statistical analysis, rather than the current misleading practice of pretending that statistics applied to observational data are objective. This basis is important, because the use of realistic priors in a statistical analysis can yield more stringent tests of hypotheses and more accurate estimates than conventional procedures.

摘要

本文回顾了概率的一些哲学方面,并描述了概率逻辑如何能赋予归纳支持、确证、反驳及相关概念精确的含义,还能为逻辑上合理的统计推断提供基础。概率逻辑也为将先验分布视为统计分析不可或缺的组成部分提供了依据,而不是当前那种假装应用于观测数据的统计是客观的误导性做法。这个依据很重要,因为在统计分析中使用符合实际的先验分布能够比传统方法产生对假设更严格的检验以及更准确的估计。

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