Quantitative cancer risk assessment for dioxins using an occupational cohort.

We consider a cohort of 1189 male German factory workers (production period 1952-1984) who produced phenoxy herbicides and were exposed to dioxins. Follow-up until the end of 1992 yielded a significantly increased standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for total cancer (SMR 141; 95% confidence interval 117-168). 2,3,7,8-Tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) concentrations up to 2252 ng/kg body fat were measured in 275 cohort members. Other higher chlorinated dioxins and furans also occurred in high concentrations. For quantitative analysis, the integrated TCDD concentration over time was used as an exposure variable, which was calculated using results from half-life estimation for TCDD and workplace history data. The other congeners were expressed as toxic equivalency (TEQ) and compared to TCDD using international toxic equivalency factors. Poisson and Cox regressions were used to investigate dose-response relationships. Various covariables (e.g., exposure to beta-hexachlorocyclohexane, employment characteristics) were considered. In all analyses, TCDD and TEQ exposures were related to total cancer mortality. The power model yielded a relative risk (RR) function RR(x) = (1 + 0.17x)0.326 for TCDD (in microgram/kilogram blood fat x years)--only a slightly better fit than a linear RR function--and RR(x) = (1 + 0.023x)0.795 for TEQ. Investigations on latency did not show strong effects. Different methods were applied to investigate the robustness of the results and yielded almost identical results. The results were used for unit risk estimation. Taking into account different sources of variation, an interval of 10(-3) to 10(-2) for the additional lifetime cancer risk under a daily intake of 1 pg TCDD/kg body weight/day was estimated from the dose-response models considered. Uncertainties regarding the dose-response function remain. These data did not indicate the existence of a threshold value; however, such a value cannot be excluded with any certainty.