Engels R C, Knibbe R A, de Vries H, Drop M J
Department of Medical Sociology, Maastricht University, The Netherlands.
Prev Med. 1998 May-Jun;27(3):348-57. doi: 10.1006/pmed.1998.0304.
In recent years many longitudinal studies have examined the predictors of smoking acquisition. However, only a few studies have focused on the precursors of smoking cessation. The current study is one of the first concentrating on longitudinal predictors of young people's smoking cessation.
Subjects were 215 smokers ages 14-15 years who were reinterviewed 3 years later. These smokers were allocated to four groups based on their motivation to quit and actual quitting behavior at the last wave. Independent variables were smoking-specific cognitions, social influences, and aspects of smoking habits.
Univariate comparisons between the four groups showed that those with a positive attitude toward smoking and lower self-efficacy were less likely to be motivated to quit 3 years later. No long-term effects of environmental influences were found. Aspects of smoking habits, such as intensity and frequency of smoking, and the context of cigarette use affected the motivation to quit. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to examine differences in predictors between the groups in more detail. These analyses revealed that differences mainly in attitudes and self-efficacy affected whether subjects were absolutely not motivated to quit or had actually quit 3 years later. Differences in smoking behavior affected the allocation to the more closely related groups (e.g., preparing versus quitting).
Adolescents' motivation to quit is affected by smoking-related cognitions and habitual factors. More research is needed to decide whether the relation between intensity and frequency of smoking and the likelihood to quit later on should be interpreted in terms of differences in smoking initiation or in terms of preparation to quit.
近年来，许多纵向研究探讨了吸烟行为形成的预测因素。然而，仅有少数研究关注戒烟行为的先兆因素。本研究是最早关注年轻人戒烟纵向预测因素的研究之一。
研究对象为215名年龄在14 - 15岁的吸烟者，3年后对他们进行再次访谈。根据他们在最后一次随访时的戒烟动机和实际戒烟行为，将这些吸烟者分为四组。自变量包括吸烟相关认知、社会影响和吸烟习惯的各个方面。
四组之间的单因素比较显示，对吸烟持积极态度且自我效能较低的人在3年后戒烟的动机较小。未发现环境影响的长期效应。吸烟习惯的各个方面，如吸烟强度和频率以及吸烟情境，会影响戒烟动机。进行逻辑回归分析以更详细地检验各组之间预测因素的差异。这些分析表明，主要是态度和自我效能的差异影响了受试者在3年后是否完全没有戒烟动机或实际已经戒烟。吸烟行为的差异影响了在更密切相关组中的分组（例如，准备戒烟与已戒烟）。
青少年的戒烟动机受吸烟相关认知和习惯因素的影响。需要更多研究来确定吸烟强度和频率与后期戒烟可能性之间的关系，究竟应从吸烟起始差异还是从戒烟准备差异的角度来解释。
