Leth P, Gregersen M, Sabroe S
Department of Forensic Medicine, University of Aarhus, Denmark.
Prev Med. 1998 May-Jun;27(3):444-51. doi: 10.1006/pmed.1998.0295.
The death rate for fatal fire accidents in Denmark has doubled since 1951, mostly due to an increase in the number of fire accidents associated with smoking. The most common cause of residential fire deaths in Denmark today is smoking, often combined with alcohol intoxication or handicap.
This was a case-control study of fatal fire accidents in private homes in the municipality of Copenhagen from 1991 to 1996. The fatal fire accidents were identified from a police register, and the two non-fatal fire accidents registered immediately before and after each fatal fire were selected as a control group. Information about the circumstances surrounding the fires was derived from the police reports. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the risk associated with each variable after adjusting for confounders. The analysis was performed on the basis of the theoretical model in which the variables were part of a causal network.
The following five variables seemed to be of most importance: (1) localization of the victim close to the source of ignition (OR = 11), (2) physical handicaps (OR = 5), (3) chronic alcoholism (OR = 7), (4) clothing fires (OR = 24), and (5) alarm being given by a person not present at the scene of fire (OR = 33). Preventive measures are discussed in the light of the results.
自1951年以来，丹麦致命火灾事故的死亡率翻了一番，主要原因是与吸烟相关的火灾事故数量增加。如今丹麦住宅火灾死亡的最常见原因是吸烟，常常伴有酒精中毒或残疾。
这是一项对1991年至1996年哥本哈根市私人住宅致命火灾事故的病例对照研究。从警方登记册中识别出致命火灾事故，并选择在每次致命火灾事故之前和之后立即登记的两起非致命火灾事故作为对照组。有关火灾周围情况的信息来自警方报告。在调整混杂因素后，使用多变量逻辑回归分析来估计与每个变量相关的风险。分析是基于变量是因果网络一部分的理论模型进行的。
以下五个变量似乎最为重要：（1）受害者靠近火源的位置（比值比=11），（2）身体残疾（比值比=5），（3）慢性酒精中毒（比值比=7），（4）衣物着火（比值比=24），以及（5）由不在火灾现场的人发出警报（比值比=33）。根据结果讨论了预防措施。
