Epidemiology of homicide in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, between 1966-1974 and 1984-1993.

BACKGROUND

We compared homicide death rates and characteristics of homicide victims and perpetrators in 1966-1974, 1984-1990, 1992-1993, and 1996 in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, in an attempt to detect possible differences in the pattern of homicides.

METHODS

Data were obtained from death certificates, coroner's records, police reports and newspapers.

RESULTS

In the 1990s the homicide death rate increased for 15- to 24-year-old black men. The rate was 69 per 100,000/year for black men ages 15-24 years from 1966 to 1974 and rose to 275 per 100,000 from 1992 to 1993. Currently, the rates appear to be declining again. Preliminary data from 1996 showed the number of homicide deaths excluding vehicular homicides between 1993 and 1996 to decline from 19 to 8 for white men, from 70 to 42 for black men, from 9 to 3 for white women, and from 13 to 6 for black women with little change in the population (denominator). The dramatic drop from 111 to 61 deaths over a short time is similar to changes across the United State and is characteristic of epidemic rise and fall of homicides in the community.

CONCLUSIONS

Between 1966 and 1993 Allegheny County experienced two separate homicide epidemics, one between 1966 and 1976 and the other between 1990 and 1993. Epidemics of homicide occur frequently and have different characteristics. New characteristics of the most recent epidemic of homicide include more homicides out of home, among strangers; less association with alcohol; and multiple perpetrators. Drug-use-associated homicides have also increased. Guns are the primary agents of homicide epidemics.