Chasse J D
Am J Public Health. 1976 Aug;66(8):747-54. doi: 10.2105/ajph.66.8.747.
This paper illustrates how a Bayesian statistical approach was used to estimate the outcomes of the National Tuberculosis Program in India. Such an estimate, it is argued, is necessary for a proper judgement about a project's social usefulness. The process of medical care delivery is reduced to a set of conditioned probabilities. The numbers are estimated using as source material medical records, the results of medical research, and the opinion of experts. Bayesian methods of estimation are used and their value is discussed. The final discussion contains a brief treatment of the role of project analysis in public decision making. The place of Bayesian methods in project analysis is briefly illustrated, demonstrating their operational value in the field of public health decision making.
本文阐述了如何运用贝叶斯统计方法来估计印度国家结核病防治计划的成果。有人认为，这样的估计对于正确判断一个项目的社会效用是必要的。医疗服务提供过程被简化为一组条件概率。使用医疗记录、医学研究结果和专家意见作为源材料来估计相关数据。采用了贝叶斯估计方法并讨论了其价值。最后的讨论简要论述了项目分析在公共决策中的作用。简要说明了贝叶斯方法在项目分析中的地位，展示了它们在公共卫生决策领域的实用价值。
