van Benthem B H, Veugelers P J, Cornelisse P G, Strathdee S A, Kaldor J M, Shafer K A, Coutinho R A, van Griensven G J
Municipal Health Service, Division of Public Health and Environment, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
AIDS. 1998 Jun 18;12(9):1039-45.
To investigate the significance of the time from seroconversion to AIDS (incubation time) and other covariates for survival from AIDS to death.
In survival analysis, survival from AIDS to death was compared for different categories of length of incubation time adjusted and unadjusted for other covariates, and significant predictors for survival from AIDS to death were investigated.
Survival after AIDS was not affected by the incubation time in univariate as well as in multivariate analyses. Predictive factors for progression from AIDS to death were age at seroconversion, type of AIDS diagnosis, and CD4 cell count at AIDS. The relative hazard for age at seroconversion increased 1.38-fold over 10 years. Men with a CD4 cell count at AIDS of <130 x 10(6)/l had a twofold higher risk in progression to death than men with higher CD4 cell counts. Persons diagnosed with lymphoma had a sixfold higher risk of progression to death than persons with Kaposi's sarcoma or opportunistic infections.
The incubation time as well as other factors before AIDS did not affect survival after AIDS. Survival from AIDS to death can be predicted by data obtained at the time of AIDS diagnosis, such as type of diagnosis, age and CD4 cell count. AIDS seems to be a significant point in progression to death, and not just a floating point between infection and death affected by prior factors for persons who did not receive effective therapy and did not have long incubation times.
探讨从血清转化到艾滋病的时间（潜伏期）及其他协变量对从艾滋病到死亡生存情况的意义。
在生存分析中，比较了对其他协变量进行调整和未调整的不同潜伏期类别下从艾滋病到死亡的生存情况，并研究了从艾滋病到死亡生存情况的显著预测因素。
在单变量和多变量分析中，艾滋病后的生存情况均不受潜伏期的影响。从艾滋病进展到死亡的预测因素为血清转化时的年龄、艾滋病诊断类型以及艾滋病时的CD4细胞计数。血清转化时年龄的相对风险在10年内增加了1.38倍。艾滋病时CD4细胞计数<130×10⁶/L的男性进展至死亡的风险是CD4细胞计数较高男性的两倍。被诊断为淋巴瘤的人进展至死亡的风险是患卡波西肉瘤或机会性感染的人的六倍。
艾滋病前的潜伏期以及其他因素不影响艾滋病后的生存情况。从艾滋病到死亡的生存情况可通过艾滋病诊断时获得的数据进行预测，如诊断类型、年龄和CD4细胞计数。艾滋病似乎是进展至死亡的一个重要节点，而不仅仅是未接受有效治疗且潜伏期不长的人在感染和死亡之间受先前因素影响的一个浮动点。
