Lee P P, Relles D A, Jackson C A
RAND, Health Sciences Program, Santa Monica, USA.
Arch Ophthalmol. 1998 Jul;116(7):917-20. doi: 10.1001/archopht.116.7.917.
To describe the distribution of the supply and requirements for subspecialty ophthalmologists.
Estimates from the Eye Care Workforce Study were used to provide subspecialty-based assessments of the supply and public health need, as well as market demand, for care provided by subspecialists. Reconciliation with the boundary models (optometry first, ophthalmology first) of the Eye Care Workforce Study and current market status also were performed.
Whether subspecialists are in excess depends first on which boundary model most closely approximates the current market conditions. Under an optometry-first model, 70% of all ophthalmologists are in excess, although subspecialists (39%) are relatively less in excess than comprehensive ophthalmologists (91% excess). Under an ophthalmology-first model, no ophthalmologists would be in excess. Extrapolating from current market conditions, a slight excess of ophthalmologists exists, probably proportional across subspecialists and comprehensive ophthalmologists. Future growth in the ophthalmologist supply will be almost entirely among subspecialists.
Under current market conditions, substantial excesses in subspecialist ophthalmologists are likely to develop and grow worse over time, given current training levels.
描述眼科亚专科医生的供需分布情况。
利用眼保健劳动力研究的估计数据，对亚专科医生提供的医疗服务的供应情况、公共卫生需求以及市场需求进行基于亚专科的评估。还对眼保健劳动力研究的边界模型（验光优先、眼科优先）与当前市场状况进行了核对。
亚专科医生是否过剩首先取决于哪种边界模型最接近当前市场状况。在验光优先模型下，所有眼科医生中有70%过剩，不过亚专科医生（39%）的过剩比例相对低于综合眼科医生（91%过剩）。在眼科优先模型下，没有眼科医生会过剩。从当前市场状况推断，眼科医生略有过剩，可能亚专科医生和综合眼科医生的过剩比例相当。眼科医生供应的未来增长几乎将完全集中在亚专科医生中。
在当前市场状况下，鉴于目前的培训水平，眼科亚专科医生很可能出现大量过剩，且随着时间推移情况会变得更糟。
