Kiszewski A E, Spielman A
Department of Tropical Public Health, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA.
J Med Entomol. 1998 Jul;35(4):584-90. doi: 10.1093/jmedent/35.4.584.
To evaluate the prospect of transposon-based genetic drive mechanisms for replacing African vectors of malaria with nonvector anopheline mosquitoes, we developed a spatially explicit simulation model that determined the likelihood that released transgenic mosquitoes may proceed to fixation or extinction under diverse conditions. We compared the effect on fixation of long breeding seasons with relatively subtle population fluctuations to short breeding seasons with severe bottlenecks. Assuming 100% transposition efficiency among heterozygotes with fitness varying between 50 and 100% of that of wild-type mosquitoes, we simulated releases of 1, 10, 50, 90, and 99% of transposon-bearers in relation to wild mosquitoes as well as 1 and 10% releases that were repeated annually. We also evaluated diverse patterns of release including linear, marginal, focused, and scattered distribution. Random dispersal provided the most rapid fixation of transposons within populations. More massive releases allowed longer persistence of transposon-bearers but did not promote fixation, especially when breeding seasons were long. Relative fitness of transposon-bearers, however, proved more powerful than pattern or number of releases in determining whether a construct will become fixed or extinct. Even when fitness approaches that of the wild-type, fixation of a construct may require 150 generations or more.
为了评估基于转座子的遗传驱动机制用非媒介按蚊取代非洲疟疾媒介的前景，我们开发了一个空间明确的模拟模型，该模型确定了在不同条件下释放的转基因蚊子可能走向固定或灭绝的可能性。我们比较了繁殖季节长且种群波动相对较小与繁殖季节短且存在严重瓶颈对固定的影响。假设杂合子中转座效率为100%，其适合度在野生型蚊子的50%至100%之间变化，我们模拟了转座子携带蚊子相对于野生蚊子的释放比例为1%、10%、50%、90%和99%的情况，以及每年重复释放1%和10%的情况。我们还评估了不同的释放模式，包括线性、边缘、集中和分散分布。随机扩散使转座子在种群中最快固定。更大规模的释放使转座子携带蚊子持续时间更长，但不促进固定，尤其是在繁殖季节长的时候。然而，在确定一个构建体是会固定还是灭绝时，转座子携带蚊子的相对适合度比释放模式或数量更具影响力。即使适合度接近野生型，一个构建体的固定可能也需要150代或更多代。
