Yates JF, Lee JW, Shinotsuka H, Patalano AL, Sieck WR
The University of Michigan
Organ Behav Hum Decis Process. 1998 May;74(2):89-117. doi: 10.1006/obhd.1998.2771.
Previous studies have revealed surprising and persistent cross-cultural variations in overconfidence, whereby respondents in some Asian cultures (e.g., Chinese) exhibit markedly higher degrees of overconfidence than respondents in other cultures (e.g., in the United States and Japan). Most of those demonstrations have entailed general knowledge tasks (e.g., answering questions such as whether Europe is larger than Australia). The present studies sought to determine whether such cross-cultural variations extend to judgments about the kinds of events that bear upon more common practical decisions and to aspects of accuracy other than overconfidence. Subjects in Taiwan, Japan, and the United States made probabilistic differential diagnoses of fictional diseases in a stochastic artificial ecology. Results revealed that previously observed cross-cultural variations do indeed generalize. The data were also informative about several potential accounts for such variations, e.g., arguing against a proposal that they rest on different emphases on discrimination rather than calibration, but consistent with the influences of culture-specific cognitive customs, including responsiveness to explicitly displayed information, regardless of its presumed validity. Copyright 1998 Academic Press.
以往的研究揭示了过度自信方面惊人且持续存在的跨文化差异，即一些亚洲文化（如中国）的受访者表现出的过度自信程度明显高于其他文化（如美国和日本）的受访者。这些研究大多涉及常识性任务（如回答欧洲是否比澳大利亚大这样的问题）。本研究旨在确定这种跨文化差异是否延伸至对与更常见实际决策相关的各类事件的判断，以及除过度自信之外的准确性方面。台湾、日本和美国的受试者在一个随机人工生态环境中对虚构疾病进行概率性鉴别诊断。结果表明，先前观察到的跨文化差异确实具有普遍性。这些数据还为解释此类差异的几个潜在原因提供了信息，例如，反驳了一种观点，即这些差异基于对辨别而非校准的不同强调，但与特定文化认知习惯的影响一致，包括对明确显示信息的反应，无论其假定的有效性如何。版权所有1998年学术出版社。
