Hakko H, Räsänen P, Tiihonen J
University of Oulu, Department of Psychiatry, Finland.
J Affect Disord. 1998 Jul;50(1):49-54. doi: 10.1016/s0165-0327(98)00031-7.
Because secular trends in seasonality of different types of suicides has not been studied before, we utilized a novel statistical method to evaluate this phenomenon by using national Finnish suicide statistics during 1980-95.
Rates were analyzed with ordinary linear regression analysis. Secular trends were evaluated using ratio-statistic and its 95% confidence intervals.
The rate of violent suicides increased before year 1990 and decreased since that. The nonviolent suicide rate increased continuously. The decreasing tendency of seasonality in nonviolent suicides and a slight decrease in violent suicides are seen within the three successive time periods studied.
Trends in rates and in seasonality of suicides might be related to changes in the health politics in Finland.
The short time-series and lack of studying associations of suicides with socioeconomic, environmental or biological factors are limitations of our study.
Studying the time-dependent changes in rates and in seasonality of suicides provide a novel perspective for the evaluation of the aetiology of suicidal behaviour.
由于此前尚未对不同类型自杀的季节性长期趋势进行研究，我们采用一种新颖的统计方法，利用1980 - 1995年芬兰全国自杀统计数据来评估这一现象。
采用普通线性回归分析对发生率进行分析。利用比率统计量及其95%置信区间评估长期趋势。
暴力自杀率在1990年前上升，此后下降。非暴力自杀率持续上升。在所研究的三个连续时间段内，非暴力自杀的季节性呈下降趋势，暴力自杀略有下降。
自杀率和自杀季节性的趋势可能与芬兰卫生政策的变化有关。
时间序列较短以及缺乏对自杀与社会经济、环境或生物学因素关联的研究是我们研究的局限性。
研究自杀率和自杀季节性随时间的变化为评估自杀行为的病因提供了一个新视角。
