A geographic information system forecast model for strategic control of fasciolosis in Ethiopia.

A geographic information system (GIS) forecast model based on moisture and thermal regime was developed to assess the risk of Fasciola hepatica, a temperate species, and its tropical counterpart, Fasciola gigantica, in Ethiopia. Agroecological map zones and corresponding environmental features that control the distribution and abundance of the disease and its snail intermediate hosts were imported from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Crop Production System Zones (CPSZ) database on east Africa and used to construct a GIS using ATLAS GIS 3.0 software. Base temperatures of 10 degrees C and 16 degrees C were used for F. hepatica and F. gigantica, respectively, to calculate growing degree days in a previously developed climate forecast system that was modified to allow use of monthly climate data values. The model was validated by comparison of risk indices and environmental features to available survey data on fasciolosis. Monthly Fasciola risk indices of four climatic regions in Ethiopia were used to project infection transmission patterns under varying climatic conditions and strategic chemotherapeutic fasciolosis control schemes. Varying degrees of F. hepatica risk occurred in most parts of the country and distinct regional F. hepatica transmission patterns could be identified. In the humid west, cercariae-shedding was predicted to occur from May to October. In the south it occurred from April to May and September to October, depending on the annual abundance of rain. In the north-central and central regions, risk was highest during heavy summer rains and pasture contamination with metacercariae was predicted to occur during August-September, except in wet years, when it may start as early as July and extend up to October. At cooler sites above altitude of 2800 m, completion of an infection cycle may require more than a year. Fasciola gigantica risk was present in the western, southern and north-central regions of the country at altitudes of 1440-2560 m. However, a transmission cycle could be completed in a single year only at elevations below 1700 m. The greatest risk of F. gigantica infection was in the humid western region. Regional strategic chemotherapy schemes of two or three treatments per year were developed. Results suggest that the model can be extrapolated to all CPSZ in the country and adapted for use in control of other vector-borne diseases of economic and public health importance.