Staples M, Marks R, Giles G
Cancer Epidemiology Centre, Anti-Cancer Council of Victoria, Melbourne, Australia.
Int J Cancer. 1998 Oct 5;78(2):144-8. doi: 10.1002/(sici)1097-0215(19981005)78:2<144::aid-ijc3>3.0.co;2-z.
Non-melanocytic skin cancer (NMSC) is the most common cancer in Australia, but data on its incidence are not routinely collected by cancer registries. National surveys were conducted in 1985, 1990 and 1995 to estimate NMSC incidence. Trends in incidence between 1985 and 1995 have been examined to determine the impact of primary prevention campaigns aimed at controlling skin cancer in Australia. National random household surveys of Australians aged over 13 years were used to estimate NMSC incidence in 1985, 1990 and 1995. Age- and sex-specific rates by survey year were modelled using Poisson regression. Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) rates in 1995 were 788 per 100,000, an increase of 19% since 1985. Squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) rates rose by 93% over the same period, from 166 to 321 per 100,000. The ratio of BCC:SCC changed from 4:1 in 1985 to 2.5:1 in 1995. BCC rates in latitudes <29 degrees S remained at about 3 times those in latitudes >37 degrees S over the decade. The ratio of SCC incidence between these latitudes changed from around 7:1 to 3:1 over the same period. Although NMSC incidence rates continue to rise, there have been reductions in BCC observed in younger age groups. Incidence rates of NMSC continue to rise in Australia, but there is evidence of a reduction in BCC incidence in younger cohorts. This is evidence that public health campaigns to reduce sun exposure may be having a beneficial effect on skin cancer rates.
非黑素细胞性皮肤癌（NMSC）是澳大利亚最常见的癌症，但癌症登记处并未常规收集其发病率数据。1985年、1990年和1995年开展了全国性调查以估算NMSC发病率。对1985年至1995年期间的发病率趋势进行了研究，以确定旨在控制澳大利亚皮肤癌的一级预防运动的影响。采用对13岁以上澳大利亚人进行全国随机家庭调查的方式来估算1985年、1990年和1995年的NMSC发病率。利用泊松回归对各调查年份的年龄和性别特异性发病率进行建模。1995年基底细胞癌（BCC）发病率为每10万人788例，自1985年以来增加了19%。同期鳞状细胞癌（SCC）发病率上升了93%，从每10万人166例增至321例。BCC与SCC的比例从1985年的4:1变为1995年的2.5:1。在这十年间，南纬<29度地区的BCC发病率约为南纬>37度地区的3倍。同期，这两个纬度地区的SCC发病率之比从约7:1变为3:1。尽管NMSC发病率持续上升，但在较年轻年龄组中观察到BCC发病率有所下降。澳大利亚NMSC发病率持续上升，但有证据表明较年轻队列的BCC发病率有所降低。这证明减少日晒的公共卫生运动可能对皮肤癌发病率产生了有益影响。
