Kawashima S, Takahashi Y, Sahashi N
Yamagata Prefectural Institute of Public Health.
Arerugi. 1998 Jul;47(7):649-57.
It is important to forecast the beginning day of Japanese cedar pollen release for taking the preventive medical measure. We analyzed the relation between the beginning day of pollen release and the changing pattern of daily air temperature. A simple and practical method for forecasting the beginning day of pollen release is suggested. Polynomial of degree three was applied to represent the general variation pattern of air temperature. Multiple correlation coefficients between parameters of the polynomial and the beginning days of pollen release were 0.88 for the difference by year, and 0.81 for the difference by place. It was shown that the minimum value and the date of the fitted polynomial curve were related closely to the difference in the beginning day of pollen release by year. The minimum value and the date of the original series of air temperature showed high correlation with the difference in the beginning day of pollen release by place. We propose to use the minimum value and the date of original series and fitted curve of air temperature for forecasting the beginning day of cedar pollen release.
为了采取预防性医疗措施，预测日本柳杉花粉释放的开始日期很重要。我们分析了花粉释放开始日期与日气温变化模式之间的关系。提出了一种简单实用的预测花粉释放开始日期的方法。应用三次多项式来表示气温的总体变化模式。该多项式参数与花粉释放开始日期之间的复相关系数，按年份差异为0.88，按地点差异为0.81。结果表明，拟合多项式曲线的最小值和日期与每年花粉释放开始日期的差异密切相关。原始气温序列的最小值和日期与不同地点花粉释放开始日期的差异高度相关。我们建议使用原始序列的最小值和日期以及气温的拟合曲线来预测柳杉花粉释放的开始日期。
