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关于成本效益分析中置信区间的一则注释。

A note on confidence intervals in cost-effectiveness analysis.

作者信息

Tambour M, Zethraeus N, Johannesson M

机构信息

Stockholm School of Economics.

出版信息

Int J Technol Assess Health Care. 1998 Summer;14(3):467-71. doi: 10.1017/s0266462300011442.

Abstract

How to obtain confidence intervals for cost-effectiveness ratios is complicated by the statistical problems of obtaining a confidence interval for a ratio of random variables. Different approaches have been suggested in the literature, but no consensus has been reached. We propose an alternative simple solution to this problem. By multiplying the effectiveness units by the price per effectiveness unit, both costs and benefits can be expressed in monetary terms and standard statistical techniques can be used to estimate a confidence interval for net benefits. This approach avoids the ratio estimation problem and explicitly recognizes that the price per effectiveness unit has to be known to provide cost-effectiveness analysis with a useful decision rule.

摘要

由于获取随机变量比率的置信区间存在统计问题,因此如何获得成本效益比率的置信区间变得很复杂。文献中提出了不同的方法,但尚未达成共识。我们针对这个问题提出了一种替代性的简单解决方案。通过将效果单位乘以每个效果单位的价格,成本和效益都可以用货币形式表示,并且可以使用标准统计技术来估计净效益的置信区间。这种方法避免了比率估计问题,并明确认识到必须知道每个效果单位的价格,才能为成本效益分析提供有用的决策规则。

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