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将排队论与蒙特卡罗模拟应用于乙醇摄入及其不良反应的研究。

Application of queueing theory with Monte Carlo simulation to the study of the intake and adverse effects of ethanol.

作者信息

Wu G

机构信息

Department of Clinical Pharmacology, Faculty of Medicine, Russian State Medical University, Moscow.

出版信息

Alcohol Alcohol. 1998 Sep-Oct;33(5):519-27. doi: 10.1093/alcalc/33.5.519.

Abstract

A deterministic approach has so far been used in the modelling of the intake, metabolism, and elimination of ethanol. However, a well-structured deterministic model needs to consider numerous factors, e.g. anatomical structure, metabolic rate, perfusion rates, non-steady-state and steady-state. In the present study, a stochastic approach was used for modelling the study of ethanol because there is a phenomenological analogy between a queueing system and the systems in the body dealing with ethanol. When using queueing theory, both the consumption of ethanol and the removal of the adverse effects associated with its consumption from the body can be random processes; and the requirement for detailed information on the anatomical structure etc. can be minimized. Using queueing theory, estimations can be made with regard to the accumulated adverse effects of ethanol in the body, the time needed to remove the adverse effects etc. Monte Carlo simulation was performed to analyse the drinking of beer and the removal of the adverse effects associated with it, and to show the potential use of queueing theory in the study of ethanol.

摘要

到目前为止,在对乙醇的摄入、代谢和消除进行建模时一直采用确定性方法。然而,一个结构完善的确定性模型需要考虑众多因素,例如解剖结构、代谢率、灌注率、非稳态和稳态。在本研究中,采用了随机方法对乙醇进行建模研究,因为排队系统与体内处理乙醇的系统之间存在现象学上的相似性。当使用排队论时,乙醇的消耗及其消耗所带来的不良影响从体内消除都可能是随机过程;并且对解剖结构等详细信息的需求可以降至最低。利用排队论,可以对乙醇在体内的累积不良影响、消除不良影响所需的时间等进行估计。进行了蒙特卡洛模拟,以分析啤酒饮用情况及其相关不良影响的消除,并展示排队论在乙醇研究中的潜在用途。

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