Vail S G, Smith G
Department of Biology, William Paterson University, Wayne, NJ 07470, USA.
J Med Entomol. 1998 Nov;35(6):1025-8. doi: 10.1093/jmedent/35.6.1025.
Air-temperature and relative humidity data were used to explain variation in behavioral activity of Ixodes scapularis Say nymphs. We estimated behavioral activity as the residual variation in drag-sample data after seasonal changes in population density were removed by regression. The seasonal decline in drag samples between June and August 1995 on field plots at Morristown National Historical Park, NJ, can be described by a simple negative exponential function. Residuals around a fitted exponential were significantly correlated with temperature and with relative humidity measured at the leaf-litter surface, and explained 34 and 44% of the variance, respectively. Multiple regression on temperature and relative humidity explained 51% of the variance. These regressions estimated the explanatory power of microclimate, independent of seasonal correlations, and might provide a basis for day-to-day prediction of human exposure to Lyme disease.
利用气温和相对湿度数据来解释肩突硬蜱若虫行为活动的变化。我们将行为活动估计为通过回归去除种群密度的季节性变化后拖网采样数据中的残余变化。1995年6月至8月间，新泽西州莫里斯敦国家历史公园野外样地的拖网采样季节性下降情况可用一个简单的负指数函数来描述。拟合指数周围的残差与温度以及在落叶层表面测得的相对湿度显著相关，分别解释了34%和44%的方差。对温度和相对湿度进行的多元回归解释了51%的方差。这些回归估计了小气候的解释力，独立于季节性相关性，可能为日常预测人类接触莱姆病提供依据。
