Udry J R, Bauman K E, Morris N M
Demography. 1976 Nov;13(4):463-78.
This paper evaluates the impact of federally subsidized family planning programs in the United States, from 1969 to 1974, on the reproductive behavior of ever-married women, 15-44 years old. The study began with an experimental design and the random assigment of areas to treatment and control but was completed as a multivariate analysis, treating program input as an interval-scaled independent variable. Using "before" and "after" area sample surveys and patient service data from operating programs, the demographic impact of the program was estimated. The impact detected was nonsignificant; according to our analysis, overall use of physician-administered contraception was not affected by the subsidized programs. The only program-induced change of activity related to reproduction that we recorded was increased use of subsidized services in study areas with high program input and increased use of private physician services where program input was low. These findings need to be interpreted with the caution usually exercised in evaluating imperfect field experiments.
本文评估了1969年至1974年美国联邦政府资助的计划生育项目对15至44岁曾婚女性生育行为的影响。该研究始于一项实验设计,将地区随机分配到治疗组和对照组,但最终作为多变量分析完成,将项目投入作为区间尺度的自变量。利用项目实施前和实施后的地区样本调查以及运营项目的患者服务数据,估计了该项目的人口统计学影响。检测到的影响不显著;根据我们的分析,医生提供的避孕措施的总体使用情况不受补贴项目的影响。我们记录的与生育相关的唯一由项目引起的活动变化是,在项目投入高的研究地区,补贴服务的使用增加,而在项目投入低的地区,私人医生服务的使用增加。在评估不完美的实地实验时,通常需要谨慎解释这些发现。