Redmond W H
College of Business Administration, Bowling Green State University, Bowling Green, Ohio, 43403, USA.
Prev Med. 1999 Mar;28(3):243-50. doi: 10.1006/pmed.1998.0410.
The purpose of this study was to examine the association between tobacco marketing efforts and daily cigarette smoking by adolescents.
This was a longitudinal study of uptake of smoking on a daily basis with smoking data from the Monitoring the Future project. Diffusion modeling was used to generate expected rates of daily smoking initiation, which were compared with actual rates. Study data were from a national survey, administered annually from 1978 through 1995. Between 4,416 and 6,099 high school seniors participated per year, for a total of 94,652. The main outcome measure was a deviation score based on expected rates from diffusion modeling vs actual rates of initiation of daily use of cigarettes by ninth graders. Annual data on cigarette marketing expenditures were reported by the Federal Trade Commission.
The deviation scores of expected vs actual rates of smoking initiation for ninth graders were correlated with annual changes in marketing expenditures. The correlation between sales promotion expenditures and the deviation score in daily smoking initiation was large (r = 0. 769) and statistically significant (P = 0.009) in the 1983-1992 period. Correlations between sales promotion and smoking initiation were not statistically significant in 1978-1982. Correlations between advertising expenditures and smoking initiation were not significant in either period.
In years of high promotional expenditures, the rate of daily smoking initiation among ninth graders was higher than expected from diffusion model predictions. Large promotional pushes by cigarette marketers in the 1980s and 1990s appear to be linked with increased levels of daily smoking initiation among ninth graders.
本研究旨在探讨烟草营销活动与青少年每日吸烟之间的关联。
这是一项基于“监测未来”项目吸烟数据的每日吸烟情况纵向研究。采用扩散模型生成每日吸烟开始的预期率，并与实际率进行比较。研究数据来自1978年至1995年每年进行的全国性调查。每年有4416至6099名高中高年级学生参与，总计94652人。主要结局指标是基于扩散模型预期率与九年级学生每日开始吸烟实际率的偏差得分。联邦贸易委员会报告了香烟营销支出的年度数据。
九年级学生吸烟开始预期率与实际率的偏差得分与营销支出的年度变化相关。在1983 - 1992年期间，促销支出与每日吸烟开始偏差得分之间的相关性很大（r = 0.769）且具有统计学意义（P = 0.009）。在1978 - 1982年期间，促销与吸烟开始之间的相关性无统计学意义。在两个时期，广告支出与吸烟开始之间的相关性均不显著。
在促销支出较高的年份，九年级学生每日吸烟开始率高于扩散模型预测的预期值。20世纪80年代和90年代香烟营销商的大力促销似乎与九年级学生每日吸烟开始水平的增加有关。
