Singer E, Cohen S M, Garfinkel R, Srole L
J Health Soc Behav. 1976 Dec;17(4):376-87.
This paper examines three related questions: First, can psychiatrists' judgments be successfully predicted by multiple regression techniques? Second, assuming that they can, are such ratings a valid measure of mental health for the same sample at a later point in time? Third, what is the relation between mental health ratings made in 1954 and such subsequently reported behavioral outcomes as nervous breakdown, mental hospitalization, or seeking professional help for emotional problems? The evidence presented warrants two conclusion. (1) The computer-derived mental health ratings are an adequate substitute for the original ratings. The regression equation accounts for 69 percent of the variance in those ratings; and the computer-derived ratings behave in the same way as the psychiatrists' ratings in relation to other variables. (2) However, neither the psychiatrists' ratings nor the computer-derived ratings are very accurate in predicting subsequent self-reported behavior indicative of mental impairment.
第一，多元回归技术能否成功预测精神科医生的判断？第二，假设可以，这些评分对于同一样本在稍后时间点的心理健康状况是否是一种有效的衡量标准？第三，1954年进行的心理健康评分与随后报告的行为结果（如精神崩溃、住院治疗或因情绪问题寻求专业帮助）之间有什么关系？所呈现的证据得出两个结论。（1）计算机得出的心理健康评分足以替代原始评分。回归方程解释了这些评分中69%的方差；并且计算机得出的评分在与其他变量的关系上与精神科医生的评分表现相同。（2）然而，无论是精神科医生的评分还是计算机得出的评分，在预测随后自我报告的表明精神损伤的行为方面都不是非常准确。
