Keeler T E, Hu T W, Barnett P G, Manning W G
Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley 94720.
J Health Econ. 1993 Apr;12(1):1-18. doi: 10.1016/0167-6296(93)90037-f.
This work analyzes the effects of prices, taxes, income, and anti-smoking regulations on the consumption of cigarettes in California (a 25-cent-per-pack state tax increase in 1989 enhances the usefulness of this exercise). Analysis is based on monthly time-series data for 1980 through 1990. Results show a price elasticity of demand for cigarettes in the short run of -0.3 to -0.5 at mean data values, and -0.5 to -0.6 in the long run. We find at least some support for two further hypotheses: that antismoking regulations reduce cigarette consumption, and that consumers behave consistently with the model of rational addiction.
本研究分析了价格、税收、收入及禁烟法规对加利福尼亚州香烟消费的影响（1989年每包香烟加征25美分的州税增强了此项研究的效用）。分析基于1980年至1990年的月度时间序列数据。结果显示，在平均数据值水平上，香烟需求的短期价格弹性为-0.3至-0.5，长期价格弹性为-0.5至-0.6。我们至少为另外两个假设找到了一些支持证据：禁烟法规减少了香烟消费，以及消费者的行为符合理性成瘾模型。
