Ye Chun-Yuan, Lee Jie-Min, Chen Sheng-Hong
Department of International Trade, Overseas Chinese Institute of Technology, Taichung, Taiwan.
BMC Public Health. 2006 Mar 10;6:62. doi: 10.1186/1471-2458-6-62.
This study evaluates the impact of an increase in cigarette tax in Taiwan in terms of the effects it has on the overall economy and the health benefits that it brings.
The multisector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was used to simulate the impact of reduced cigarette consumption resulting from a new tax scheme on the entire economy gains and on health benefits.
The results predict that because of the new tax scheme, there should be a marked reduction in cigarette consumption but a notable increase in health benefits that include saving between 28,125 and 56,250 lives. This could save NTD 1.222 approximately 2.445 billion (where USD 1 = NTD 34.6) annually in life-threatening, cigarette-related health insurance expenses which exceeds the projected decrease of NTD 1.275 billion in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) because of reduced consumption and therefore tax revenue.
Overall, the increased cigarette excise tax will be beneficial in terms of both the health of the general public and the economy as a whole.
本研究从对整体经济的影响以及所带来的健康益处方面，评估台湾提高卷烟税的影响。
采用多部门可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型，模拟新税收方案导致卷烟消费减少对整体经济收益和健康益处的影响。
结果预测，由于新税收方案，卷烟消费应会显著减少，但健康益处会显著增加，包括挽救28125至56250条生命。这每年可节省约12.22亿至24.45亿新台币（1美元 = 34.6新台币）用于支付危及生命的、与卷烟相关的医疗保险费用，这超过了因消费减少从而税收减少预计导致的国内生产总值（GDP）下降12.75亿新台币。
总体而言，提高卷烟消费税对公众健康和整体经济都将有益。
