Abbott T A
Merck & Co., Westpoint, PA 19486, USA.
J Health Econ. 1995 Dec;14(5):551-65. doi: 10.1016/0167-6296(95)00022-4.
President Clinton and several Legislators have proposed restrictions on price increases in the pharmaceutical industry similar to those on some public utilities. Studies, however, suggest that under conditions of rapidly changing demand (as found in pharmaceuticals), price-caps could be manipulated. Using simulations, we show that in reaction to regulation, pharmaceutical firms would optimally set launch prices 50 percent higher than in an unregulated market. Although initially hurt, after seven years consumers benefit as the unregulated price rises above the price-cap. Thus, before enacting legislation, Congress should assess America's willingness to pay more now for lower prices in the future.
克林顿总统和几位立法者提议对制药行业的价格上涨进行限制，类似于对一些公共事业的限制。然而，研究表明，在需求迅速变化的情况下（如制药行业），价格上限可能会被操纵。通过模拟，我们表明，作为对监管的反应，制药公司会将上市价格最优地设定为比不受监管的市场高出50%。虽然最初会受到伤害，但七年后消费者会受益，因为不受监管的价格会上涨到高于价格上限的水平。因此，在颁布立法之前，国会应该评估美国现在是否愿意为未来的低价支付更多费用。
