Shajarizadeh Ali, Hollis Aidan
University of Calgary, Department of Economics, Alberta, Canada.
Health Econ. 2015 Aug;24(8):966-77. doi: 10.1002/hec.3075. Epub 2014 Jul 2.
This paper examines the effect of the regulations restricting price increases on the evolution of pharmaceutical prices. A novel theoretical model shows that this policy leads firms to price new drugs with uncertain demand above the expected value initially. Price decreases after drug launch are more likely, the higher the uncertainty. We empirically test the model's predictions using data from the Canadian pharmaceutical market. The level of uncertainty is shown to play a crucial role in drug pricing strategies.
本文考察了限制价格上涨的法规对药品价格演变的影响。一个新颖的理论模型表明，这一政策会导致企业在需求不确定的情况下，最初将新药价格定在预期价值之上。药品上市后降价的可能性越大，不确定性就越高。我们使用加拿大药品市场的数据对该模型的预测进行了实证检验。结果表明，不确定性水平在药品定价策略中起着至关重要的作用。
