Blettner M, Sauerbrei W, Schlehofer B, Scheuchenpflug T, Friedenreich C
German Cancer Research Center, Division of Epidemiology, Heidelberg.
Int J Epidemiol. 1999 Feb;28(1):1-9. doi: 10.1093/ije/28.1.1.
The use of review articles and meta-analysis has become an important part of epidemiological research, mainly for reconciling previously conducted studies that have inconsistent results. Numerous methodologic issues particularly with respect to biases and the use of meta-analysis are still controversial.
Four methods summarizing data from epidemiological studies are described. The rationale for meta-analysis and the statistical methods used are outlined. The strengths and limitations of these methods are compared particularly with respect to their ability to investigate heterogeneity between studies and to provide quantitative risk estimation.
Meta-analyses from published data are in general insufficient to calculate a pooled estimate since published estimates are based on heterogeneous populations, different study designs and mainly different statistical models. More reliable results can be expected if individual data are available for a pooled analysis, although some heterogeneity still remains. Large prospective planned meta-analysis of multicentre studies would be preferable to investigate small risk factors, however this type of meta-analysis is expensive and time-consuming.
For a full assessment of risk factors with a high prevalence in the general population, pooling of data will become increasingly important. Future research needs to focus on the deficiencies of review methods, in particular, the errors and biases that can be produced when studies are combined that have used different designs, methods and analytic models.
综述文章和荟萃分析的运用已成为流行病学研究的重要组成部分,主要用于协调先前结果不一致的研究。众多方法学问题,尤其是关于偏倚和荟萃分析的使用,仍存在争议。
描述了四种汇总流行病学研究数据的方法。概述了荟萃分析的基本原理及所使用的统计方法。特别就这些方法调查研究间异质性以及提供定量风险估计的能力,比较了它们的优缺点。
基于已发表数据的荟萃分析通常不足以计算合并估计值,因为已发表的估计值基于异质性人群、不同的研究设计以及主要不同的统计模型。如果能获取个体数据进行合并分析,有望得到更可靠的结果,尽管仍存在一些异质性。对多中心研究进行大规模前瞻性计划的荟萃分析更适合研究小风险因素,然而这类荟萃分析成本高且耗时。
为全面评估一般人群中高患病率的风险因素,数据合并将变得愈发重要。未来研究需聚焦于综述方法的不足,尤其是在合并使用不同设计、方法和分析模型的研究时可能产生的误差和偏倚。