Rosenberg C I
Med Econ. 1979 Oct 29;56(22):109-14.
This article predicts escalating premiums and a greater risk of malpractice suits based on the increasing frequency and cost of claim payouts. The number of insurance claims increased by 12% in 1978 after a decrease of 11% in 1976 and by 2% in 1977. The percentage of premium income paid out has followed the same pattern. It was a high of 66.5% in 1975 and then fell into the 40% range in the next two years. Last year it bounced back to 60.6%. Some insurance authorities view the 1976-77 drop in claims as artificial and attribute it to a reluctance to file suits during the period immediately following new malpractice laws. The reluctance to sue has apparently relaxed. About 16% of the cases actually go to court. Out of those, 90% of the verdicts favor doctors. The rise in cases going to court shows that reform! legislation passed in several states to reduce malpractice litigation is not yet working. The average payout was up 20% between 1976 and 1978 with the greatest rise in large awards; million-dollar settlements are not uncommon. Escalating payouts are attributed to general inflation anf rising medical costs. In addition, the public has become better medically informed and been taught that for every wrong ther is a remedy.
本文基于索赔支出频率和成本的增加，预测保费将不断上涨，医疗事故诉讼风险也会更大。1976年保险索赔数量下降了11%，1977年下降了2%，而1978年却增加了12%。保费收入支出的百分比也呈现出相同的模式。1975年这一比例高达66.5%，在接下来的两年里降至40%的区间。去年又反弹至60.6%。一些保险机构认为1976 - 1977年索赔数量的下降是人为造成的，原因是在新的医疗事故法颁布后的一段时间内人们不愿提起诉讼。现在不愿起诉的情况显然有所缓解。实际上约16%的案件会诉诸法庭。在这些案件中，90%的判决有利于医生。诉诸法庭的案件数量增加表明，几个州通过的旨在减少医疗事故诉讼的改革立法尚未起作用。1976年至1978年间，平均赔付额上涨了20%，大额赔付增长最为显著；百万美元的和解赔偿并不罕见。赔付额不断攀升归因于总体通货膨胀和医疗成本上升。此外，公众在医学方面的知识更加丰富，并且了解到每一个错误都有补救办法。
