An inquiry concerning future health care technology: methods and general results.

New and future health care technology has important implications for the delivery and organization of health care. Furthermore, advances in health care technology are increasingly associated with social, ethical, and economic issues. Effective health planning needs to anticipate future health care technology and take into account such implications. This paper concerns an analysis of future health care technology undertaken in the Netherlands. The study involved: (a) the early identification of future developments in health care technology; and (b) prospective assessments of a number of high-priority technologies. The paper concludes that technology forecasting in health care should become an integral part of overall technology assessment activities in industrialized countries.