Banta H D, Gelijns A C, Griffioen J, Graaff P J
Health Policy. 1987;8(3):251-64. doi: 10.1016/0168-8510(87)90002-9.
New and future health care technology has important implications for the delivery and organization of health care. Furthermore, advances in health care technology are increasingly associated with social, ethical, and economic issues. Effective health planning needs to anticipate future health care technology and take into account such implications. This paper concerns an analysis of future health care technology undertaken in the Netherlands. The study involved: (a) the early identification of future developments in health care technology; and (b) prospective assessments of a number of high-priority technologies. The paper concludes that technology forecasting in health care should become an integral part of overall technology assessment activities in industrialized countries.
新型及未来的医疗保健技术对医疗保健的提供与组织具有重要影响。此外，医疗保健技术的进步越来越多地与社会、伦理和经济问题相关联。有效的医疗规划需要预见未来的医疗保健技术并考虑到此类影响。本文涉及对荷兰开展的未来医疗保健技术的分析。该研究包括：（a）尽早识别医疗保健技术的未来发展；以及（b）对一些高度优先技术进行前瞻性评估。本文的结论是，医疗保健领域的技术预测应成为工业化国家整体技术评估活动的一个组成部分。
