Banta H D, Gelijns A C
PG/TNO, Leiden, The Netherlands.
World Health Stat Q. 1994;47(3-4):140-8.
Future and emerging health care technologies are increasingly high-impact events for society in terms of the quality and costs of health care. They raise issues of efficacy, safety, resource allocation, ethics, impact on the organization and delivery of care, and broad social effects. This article describes an analysis of future and emerging health care technology, initiated by the government of the Netherlands and carried out formally from 1985 to 1988, and its potential usefulness in a policy and decision-making context. Using the results and experiences of this analysis, it is argued that rational health care planning and decision-making can be strengthened by paying more attention to the possible implications of emerging and future technology.
就医疗保健的质量和成本而言，未来和新兴的医疗保健技术对社会来说正日益成为具有重大影响的事件。它们引发了疗效、安全性、资源分配、伦理、对医疗保健组织和提供方式的影响以及广泛的社会影响等问题。本文描述了由荷兰政府发起并于1985年至1988年正式开展的对未来和新兴医疗保健技术的分析，以及该分析在政策和决策背景下的潜在用途。利用这一分析的结果和经验，有人认为，通过更加关注新兴和未来技术可能产生的影响，可以加强合理的医疗保健规划和决策。
