Forbes J F, McGregor A
J Health Econ. 1984 Dec;3(3):239-57. doi: 10.1016/0167-6296(84)90013-4.
One of the more controversial topics in the literature examining the influence of unemployment on health is the hypothesised relation between unemployment and mortality. This paper presents a time series analysis of unemployment and mortality in post-war Scotland. Using a variety of model specifications and several measures of the age and duration structure of male unemployment, we find little evidence of a consistent association between unemployment and male mortality from all causes in different age cohorts. Unemployment, however, appeared to be more closely associated with variations in mortality rates and ischaemic heart disease, but the direction of effect was sensitive to the choice of maximum lag length between unemployment and mortality. There was also little evidence that per-capita real incomes or health expenditure exerted a significant influence on mortality. Our general findings and the methodological limitations of macro-studies of the relationship between unemployment and mortality highlight the importance of investigating the health consequences of unemployment using well controlled longitudinal studies of individuals.
在研究失业对健康影响的文献中，较具争议性的话题之一是失业与死亡率之间的假设关系。本文对战后苏格兰的失业情况和死亡率进行了时间序列分析。我们使用了多种模型设定以及衡量男性失业年龄和持续时间结构的若干指标，几乎没有发现不同年龄组中失业与全因男性死亡率之间存在一致关联的证据。然而，失业似乎与死亡率和缺血性心脏病的变化更为密切相关，但影响方向对失业与死亡率之间最大滞后长度的选择较为敏感。也几乎没有证据表明人均实际收入或医疗支出对死亡率有显著影响。我们的总体研究结果以及对失业与死亡率关系进行宏观研究的方法局限性凸显了通过对个体进行严格控制的纵向研究来调查失业对健康影响的重要性。
