Pope C A, Hill R W, Villegas G M
Department of Economics, Brigham Young University, Provo, Utah 84602, USA.
Environ Health Perspect. 1999 Jul;107(7):567-73. doi: 10.1289/ehp.99107567.
Reviews of daily time-series mortality studies from many cities throughout the world suggest that daily mortality counts are associated with short-term changes in particulate matter (PM) air pollution. One U.S. city, however, with conspicuously weak PM-mortality associations was Salt Lake City, Utah; however, relatively robust PM-mortality associations have been observed in a neighboring metropolitan area (Provo/Orem, Utah). The present study explored this apparent discrepancy by collecting, comparing, and analyzing mortality, pollution, and weather data for all three metropolitan areas on Utah's Wasatch Front region of the Wasatch Mountain Range (Ogden, Salt Lake City, and Provo/Orem) for approximately 10 years (1985-1995). Generalized additive Poisson regression models were used to estimate PM-mortality associations while controlling for seasonality, temperature, humidity, and barometric pressure. Salt Lake City experienced substantially more episodes of high PM that were dominated by windblown dust. When the data were screened to exclude obvious windblown dust episodes and when PM data from multiple monitors were used to construct an estimate of mean exposure for the area, comparable PM-mortality effects were estimated. After screening and by using constructed mean PM [less than/equal to] 10 microm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) data, the estimated percent change in mortality associated with a 10-mg/m3 increase in PM10 (and 95% confidence intervals) for the three Wasatch Front metropolitan areas equaled approximately 1. 6% (0.3-2.9), 0.8% (0.3-1.3), and 1.0% (0.2-1.8) for the Ogden, Salt Lake City, and Provo/Orem areas, respectively. We conclude that stagnant air pollution episodes with higher concentrations of primary and secondary combustion-source particles were more associated with elevated mortality than windblown dust episodes with relatively higher concentrations of coarse crustal-derived particles.
对来自世界各地许多城市的每日时间序列死亡率研究的综述表明,每日死亡人数与颗粒物(PM)空气污染的短期变化有关。然而,美国犹他州的盐湖城是一个明显存在PM与死亡率关联较弱的城市;不过,在邻近的大都市区(犹他州普罗沃/奥勒姆)却观察到了相对较强的PM与死亡率的关联。本研究通过收集、比较和分析犹他州瓦萨奇山脉瓦萨奇前线地区的所有三个大都市区(奥格登、盐湖城和普罗沃/奥勒姆)约10年(1985 - 1995年)的死亡率、污染和天气数据,探讨了这一明显差异。在控制季节性、温度、湿度和气压的同时,使用广义相加泊松回归模型来估计PM与死亡率的关联。盐湖城经历了更多以扬尘为主导的高PM事件。当筛选数据以排除明显的扬尘事件,并且使用来自多个监测器的PM数据来构建该地区平均暴露量的估计值时,得出了可比的PM与死亡率的影响估计值。在筛选后并使用构建的空气动力学直径小于或等于10微米(PM10)的数据,对于瓦萨奇前线的三个大都市区,与PM10每增加10毫克/立方米相关的死亡率估计百分比变化(以及95%置信区间)分别约为奥格登地区1.6%(0.3 - 2.9)、盐湖城地区0.8%(0.3 - 1.3)和普罗沃/奥勒姆地区1.0%(0.2 - 1.8)。我们得出结论,与相对较高浓度的粗地壳衍生颗粒的扬尘事件相比,含有较高浓度一次和二次燃烧源颗粒的空气污染停滞事件与死亡率升高的关联更大。