Ostro B
Air Pollution Epidemiology Unit, California Environmental Protection Agency, Berkeley.
Arch Environ Health. 1993 Sep-Oct;48(5):336-42. doi: 10.1080/00039896.1993.9936722.
An association between air pollution measured as particulate matter, and mortality has been reported in several different locations. These studies have been conducted over a wide range of climates and populations. The time-series studies, which examine the joint occurrence of daily fluctuations in air pollution and mortality, provide the strongest evidence of a true association. However, several criteria, including the consistency of the results, need to be explored before causality is inferred from these studies. A striking consistency in the results was observed, after the different studies were converted into a common metric. The mean effect of an 10 micrograms/m3 change in PM10 implied by these studies varies between 0.64 and 1.49%. The fulfillment of other criteria, including specificity, presence of a dose-response relationship, and coherence of results, lend strong support to the existence of an actual association between particulate matter and mortality. However, the biologic mechanism is not well understood at this time. In addition, the precise measure of the pollutant responsible for the health effect--total suspended particles, PM10, fine particles, sulfates, acidic aerosols, sulfur dioxide, or some as yet unmeasured pollutant--is unclear, based on current available evidence.
在几个不同地点均报告了以颗粒物衡量的空气污染与死亡率之间的关联。这些研究是在广泛的气候条件和人群中进行的。时间序列研究考察了空气污染的每日波动与死亡率的共同发生情况，为真实关联提供了最有力的证据。然而，在从这些研究推断因果关系之前，需要探讨几个标准，包括结果的一致性。在将不同研究转换为共同指标后，观察到结果具有显著的一致性。这些研究表明，PM10每变化10微克/立方米，平均影响在0.64%至1.49%之间。其他标准的满足，包括特异性、剂量反应关系的存在以及结果的一致性，有力地支持了颗粒物与死亡率之间实际存在关联。然而，目前对生物学机制的理解还不够充分。此外，根据现有证据，尚不清楚导致健康影响的污染物的精确测量指标——总悬浮颗粒物、PM10、细颗粒物、硫酸盐、酸性气溶胶、二氧化硫，还是某些尚未测量的污染物。
