Liu S, Wen S W, Mao Y, Mery L, Rouleau J
Bureau of Reproductive and Child Health, Laboratory Centre for Disease Control, Ottawa, ON.
Can J Public Health. 1999 May-Jun;90(3):176-80. doi: 10.1007/BF03404502.
To examine the pattern of testicular cancer incidence by age, time period and birth cohort since 1969 in Canada.
In addition to analyses of the secular trends by age group and birth cohort separately, an age-period-cohort model and the submodels with standard Poisson assumptions were fitted to the data.
The overall age-adjusted incidence of testicular cancer increased in Canada, from 2.8 per 100,000 males in 1969-71 to 4.2 in 1991-93. The younger age groups showed much higher absolute incidence rates in the recent period compared with those in the early period. Age-period-cohort modelling of data restricted to males aged 20-84 years suggested that the observed increase in testicular cancer could be largely attributed to a birth cohort effect. A steady increase in risk was observed among men born since 1945; those born between 1959 and 1968 were 2.0 (95% CI, 1.5-2.6) times as likely to develop testicular cancer as those born between 1904 and 1913.
The risk of testicular cancer has increased over time and changing exposure to environmental factors early in life may be responsible for this.
研究1969年以来加拿大睾丸癌发病率随年龄、时间段和出生队列的变化模式。
除了分别按年龄组和出生队列分析长期趋势外，还对数据拟合了年龄-时期-队列模型以及具有标准泊松假设的子模型。
加拿大睾丸癌的总体年龄调整发病率有所上升，从1969 - 1971年每10万名男性中的2.8例增至1991 - 1993年的4.2例。与早期相比，近期较年轻年龄组的绝对发病率要高得多。对20 - 84岁男性数据进行的年龄-时期-队列建模表明，观察到的睾丸癌发病率上升在很大程度上可归因于出生队列效应。1945年以后出生的男性中观察到风险稳步上升；1959年至1968年出生的男性患睾丸癌的可能性是1904年至1913年出生男性的2.0倍（95%置信区间，1.5 - 2.6）。
睾丸癌风险随时间增加，生命早期环境因素暴露的变化可能是其原因。
