Mortality in North Korean migrant households: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND

A deteriorating economy, coupled with a series of natural disasters in 1995-97, led to a severe food crisis in North Korea. Although the country has received substantial international aid since 1996, demographic assessments of crisis impact have been limited. We assessed mortality trends in North Korea since 1995.

METHODS

At 15 randomly selected sites in China, 440 North Korean adult migrants were interviewed during July-September, 1998. Respondents were asked about births, deaths, and migration patterns in their households between mid-1994 and mid-1998, and about household food sources. The respondents also provided basic demographic information about the households of their relatives. We compared mortality rates from migrant households with data from the 1993 census and with data about households of non-migrant relatives.

FINDINGS

Households that included a recent migrant to China showed increasing mortality: crude death rates rose from 28.9 per 1000 in 1995, to 45.6 per 1000 in 1996, and to 56.0 per 1000 in 1997 (p=0.0001), with a 3-year average rate of 42.8 per 1000. The crude 3-year birth rate was 11.0 per 1000. Average household size declined from 4.0 at the beginning of 1995 to 3.4 at the end of 1997 (p=0.0002). Among 259 households of non-migrant relatives, the crude death rate was 43.2 per 1000 and the crude birth rate was 8.8 per 1000. In these households, the 3-year trend of increasing mortality was significant (p=0.001), as was the decline in average household size from 4.3 at the beginning of 1995 to 3.7 at the end of 1997 (p=0.0001).

INTERPRETATION

Among North Korean households that include a recent migrant to China, mortality has increased and household size has declined since 1995. This trend raises concern about the state of the general population, at least in the province of North Hamkyong, from where most of the migrants originated.