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验证和比较预测模型。

Validating and comparing predictive models.

作者信息

Baranyi J, Pin C, Ross T

机构信息

Institute of Food Research Reading Laboratory, UK.

出版信息

Int J Food Microbiol. 1999 Jun 1;48(3):159-66. doi: 10.1016/s0168-1605(99)00035-5.

DOI:10.1016/s0168-1605(99)00035-5
PMID:10443535
Abstract

The bias and accuracy factors introduced by Ross [Ross, T., 1996. Indices for performance evaluation of predictive models in food microbiology. J. Appl Bacteriol. 81, 501-508] for the evaluation of the performance of models in 'predictive food microbiology' are refined by basing the calculation of those measures on the mean square differences between predictions and observations. The use of the indices is extended by presenting formulae and methods which enable evaluation of the difference between alternative models for growth of an organism of interest over a domain of environmental factors. This is done by calculating the integral mean of the square differences between the models under investigation over the domain of the environmental variables common to those models, or a sub-region of it. The use of the techniques is exemplified by evaluating the difference between four published models for the growth rate of psychrotrophic pseudomonads.

摘要

罗斯[罗斯,T.,1996年。食品微生物学中预测模型性能评估指标。《应用细菌学杂志》81卷,501 - 508页]为“预测性食品微生物学”中模型性能评估引入的偏差和准确性因素,通过基于预测值与观测值之间的均方差来计算这些度量进行了改进。通过给出公式和方法扩展了这些指标的用途,这些公式和方法能够评估感兴趣的生物体在环境因素范围内生长的替代模型之间的差异。这是通过计算所研究模型在这些模型共有的环境变量域或其子区域上的均方差积分均值来实现的。通过评估四个已发表的嗜冷假单胞菌生长速率模型之间的差异,举例说明了这些技术的应用。

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