Ross T
Department of Agricultural Science, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia.
J Appl Bacteriol. 1996 Nov;81(5):501-8. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2672.1996.tb03539.x.
Two complementary measures are proposed as simple indices of the performance of models in predictive food microbiology. The indices assess the level of confidence one can have in the predictions of the model and whether the model displays any bias which could lead to 'fail-dangerous' predictions. The use of the indices is demonstrated using data collated from independent and published literature. This analysis supports previous reports that evaluation of predictive models by comparison to published microbial growth rate data may be inappropriate because of limitations in that data. The indices may fail to reveal some forms of systematic deviation between observed and predicted behaviour. It is concluded, however, that the indices provide an objective and readily interpreted summary of model performance and may serve as a first step towards the development of an objective and useful definition of the term 'validated model' in predictive food microbiology.
提出了两种互补的度量方法，作为预测食品微生物学中模型性能的简单指标。这些指标评估人们对模型预测的置信水平，以及模型是否存在可能导致“故障危险”预测的偏差。通过整理独立的已发表文献中的数据，展示了这些指标的使用。该分析支持了先前的报告，即由于该数据存在局限性，通过与已发表的微生物生长速率数据进行比较来评估预测模型可能并不合适。这些指标可能无法揭示观察到的和预测的行为之间的某些形式的系统偏差。然而，可以得出结论，这些指标提供了模型性能的客观且易于解释的总结，并且可以作为朝着在预测食品微生物学中开发“验证模型”这一术语的客观且有用的定义迈出的第一步。
