Meller I, Fichter M M, Schröppel H
Klinik Roseneck, Hospital of Behavioural Medicine, D-83209 Prien, Germany.
Eur Arch Psychiatry Clin Neurosci. 1999;249(4):180-9. doi: 10.1007/s004060050085.
The object of the study was the assessment of the mortality risk for persons in a representative two-wave community sample assessed longitudinally. In the first cross-section a total of 358 (89.1%) subjects of Munich, Germany, aged 85 years and above were interviewed by research physicians. One year later 263 (73.5%) persons were reexamined. Death certificate diagnoses were obtained after an interval of 4 years 8 months. 58% of the total sample were deceased. Sociodemographic factors, mental disorders, subjective health status and need for care were analysed in relation to mortality by Cox regression. The probability of death was increased in those diagnosed as having a dementia or depressive disorder, in those of increasing age, living in institutions, being in need of care and of bad health status. In the multi-variate Cox regression model the influence of these different factors was examined and evaluated. Need for care was the most powerful predictor of mortality.
本研究的目的是评估在一个具有代表性的两波社区样本中纵向评估的人群的死亡风险。在第一次横断面研究中，德国慕尼黑的358名（89.1%）85岁及以上的受试者接受了研究医生的访谈。一年后，对263名（73.5%）人员进行了复查。在间隔4年8个月后获得了死亡证明诊断结果。总样本中有58%的人死亡。通过Cox回归分析了社会人口统计学因素、精神障碍、主观健康状况和护理需求与死亡率的关系。被诊断患有痴呆症或抑郁症的人、年龄增加的人、住在机构中的人、需要护理的人以及健康状况差的人的死亡概率增加。在多变量Cox回归模型中，对这些不同因素的影响进行了检验和评估。护理需求是死亡率最有力的预测因素。
