Birrell F, Johnell O, Silman A
ARC Epidemiology Unit, University of Manchester, M13 9PT.
Ann Rheum Dis. 1999 Sep;58(9):569-72. doi: 10.1136/ard.58.9.569.
To estimate the requirement for total hip replacement in the United Kingdom over the next three decades
Projection of age and sex specific hip replacements in the UK over 10 year intervals taking account of demographic change and the extrapolation of arthroplasty rates from Sweden; a country with recently introduced guidelines.
Assuming no change in the age and sex specific arthroplasty rates, the estimated number of hip replacements will increase by 40% over the next 30 year period because of demographic change alone. The proportionate change will be substantially higher in men (51%) than women (33%), with a doubling of the number of male hip replacements in those aged over 85. Changes in the threshold for surgery may increase this further-up to double the current number.
A sharp rise in hip replacements will be needed to satisfy needs in the UK population over the next 30 years.
估计未来三十年英国全髋关节置换的需求量
考虑人口结构变化，以十年为间隔预测英国特定年龄和性别的髋关节置换情况，并从瑞典（一个近期出台了相关指南的国家）推断关节成形术的发生率；
假设特定年龄和性别的关节成形术发生率不变，仅由于人口结构变化，预计未来30年髋关节置换的数量将增加40%。男性的相应变化（51%）将大大高于女性（33%），85岁以上男性髋关节置换数量将翻倍。手术阈值的变化可能会进一步增加——最高可达当前数量的两倍。
未来30年，英国需要大幅增加髋关节置换手术以满足民众需求。
