Gray G C, Smith T C, Knoke J D, Heller J M
Department of Health Sciences and Epidemiology, Naval Health Research Center, San Diego, CA 92186-5122, USA.
Am J Epidemiol. 1999 Sep 1;150(5):532-40. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a010043.
Using Department of Defense hospital data, the authors examined the postwar hospitalization experience from March 1991 through September 1995 of US Gulf War veterans who were near Khamisiyah, Iraq, during nerve agent munition destruction in March 1991. Multiple sources of meteorologic, munition, and toxicology data were used to circumscribe geographic areas of low level, vaporized nerve agent for 4 days after the destruction. Plume estimates were overlaid on military unit positions, and exposure was estimated for the 349,291 US Army Gulf War veterans. Exposure was classified as not exposed (n = 224,804), uncertain low dose exposure (n = 75,717), and specific estimated subclinical exposure (n = 48,770) categorized into three groups for dose-response evaluation. Using Cox proportional hazard modeling, the authors compared the postwar experiences of these exposure groups for hospitalization due to any cause, for diagnoses in 15 unique categories, and for specific diagnoses an expert panel proposed as most likely to reflect latent disease from such subclinical exposure. There was little evidence that veterans possibly exposed to the nerve agent plumes experienced unusual postwar morbidity. While there were several differences in hospitalization risk, none of the models suggested a dose-response relation or neurologic sequelae. These data, having a number of limitations, do not support the hypothesis that Gulf War veterans are suffering postwar morbidity from subclinical nerve agent exposure.
作者利用美国国防部医院的数据,研究了1991年3月至1995年9月期间参加海湾战争的美国退伍军人的战后住院情况。这些退伍军人在1991年3月伊拉克哈米西耶附近销毁神经毒剂弹药时身处当地。研究使用了多种气象、弹药和毒理学数据源,以划定销毁后4天内低水平汽化神经毒剂的地理区域。将羽流估计范围覆盖在军事单位位置上,并对349,291名参加海湾战争的美国陆军退伍军人的接触情况进行了估计。接触情况分为未接触(n = 224,804)、低剂量接触不确定(n = 75,717)和特定估计亚临床接触(n = 48,770),后者又分为三组用于剂量反应评估。作者使用Cox比例风险模型,比较了这些接触组因任何原因住院、15个独特类别的诊断以及专家小组提出的最有可能反映此类亚临床接触潜在疾病的特定诊断的战后经历。几乎没有证据表明可能接触神经毒剂羽流的退伍军人战后发病率异常。虽然住院风险存在一些差异,但没有一个模型显示出剂量反应关系或神经后遗症。这些数据存在一些局限性,不支持海湾战争退伍军人因亚临床接触神经毒剂而出现战后发病的假设。