Barry S, Ginpil S, O'Neill T J
Department of Statistics and Econometrics, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT.
Accid Anal Prev. 1999 Nov;31(6):781-7. doi: 10.1016/s0001-4575(99)00041-x.
Previous research has shown that the installation of air bags in vehicles significantly reduces crash related deaths, but these analyses have used statistical techniques which have not been capable of controlling for other major determinants of crash survival. This study analysed data from the US FARS database of fatal crashes using conditional logistic regression which is simultaneously able to estimate occupant protection effects for a range of variables. Results of the analysis provided a comparative quantification of both the effect of the air bag as well as other well known determinants of occupant crash survival (age, seat belt use, and gender). When potentially confounding variables were controlled, both the driver and passenger side air bag devices were shown to significantly reduce the probability of death in direct frontal collisions, but the effect size calculated was small compared to the effect of the seat belt. The effect size may also be very small in absolute terms depending on the severity of the crash involved. Given the limited benefit of the air bag, efforts to promote air bags seem particularly difficult to justify in countries such as the United States where the vastly superior occupant protection of the seat belt is under-utilised.
先前的研究表明，在车辆中安装安全气囊可显著降低与碰撞相关的死亡人数，但这些分析所使用的统计技术无法控制碰撞存活率的其他主要决定因素。本研究使用条件逻辑回归分析了美国致命碰撞事故的FARS数据库中的数据，该方法能够同时估计一系列变量的乘员保护效果。分析结果对安全气囊的效果以及乘员碰撞存活率的其他众所周知的决定因素（年龄、安全带使用情况和性别）进行了比较量化。当潜在的混杂变量得到控制时，驾驶员侧和乘客侧安全气囊装置均显示可显著降低正面直接碰撞中的死亡概率，但与安全带的效果相比，计算得出的效应量较小。根据所涉及碰撞的严重程度，效应量的绝对值可能也非常小。鉴于安全气囊的益处有限，在美国等国家，安全带对乘员的保护作用远优于安全气囊，但却未得到充分利用，因此推广安全气囊的努力似乎尤其难以自圆其说。
