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具有一般感染和清除率函数的流行病模型的最优干预

Optimal intervention for epidemic models with general infection and removal rate functions.

作者信息

Clancy D

机构信息

Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 3BX, UK.

出版信息

J Math Biol. 1999 Oct;39(4):309-31. doi: 10.1007/s002850050193.

Abstract

In this paper, known results on optimal intervention policies for the general stochastic epidemic model are extended to epidemic models with more general infection and removal rate functions. We consider first policies allowing for the isolation of any number of infectives from the susceptible population at any time, secondly policies allowing for the immunisation of the entire susceptible population at any time, and finally policies allowing for either of these interventions. In each case the costs of infection, isolation and immunisation are assumed to have a particular, rather simple, form. Sufficient conditions are given on the infection and removal rate functions of the model for the optimal policies to take the same simple form as in the case of the general stochastic epidemic model. More general costs are briefly discussed, and some numerical examples given. Finally, we discuss possible directions for further work.

摘要

在本文中,关于一般随机流行病模型最优干预策略的已知结果被扩展到具有更一般感染和清除率函数的流行病模型。我们首先考虑允许在任何时间从易感人群中隔离任意数量感染者的策略,其次考虑允许在任何时间对整个易感人群进行免疫的策略,最后考虑允许进行上述任何一种干预的策略。在每种情况下,假设感染、隔离和免疫的成本具有一种特定的、相当简单的形式。给出了模型的感染和清除率函数的充分条件,以使最优策略具有与一般随机流行病模型情况相同的简单形式。简要讨论了更一般的成本,并给出了一些数值示例。最后,我们讨论了进一步研究的可能方向。

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