Dunn P0, Winkler DW
Department of Biological Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, 53201, USA.
Proc Biol Sci. 1999 Dec 22;266(1437):2487-90. doi: 10.1098/rspb.1999.0950.
Increasing evidence suggests that climate change has affected the breeding and distribution of wildlife. If such changes are due to global warming, then we should expect to see large-scale effects. To explore for such effects on avian reproduction, we examined 3450 nest records of tree swallows from across North America. The egg-laying date in tree swallows advanced by up to nine days during 1959-1991. This advance in phenology was associated with increasing surface air temperatures at the time of breeding. Our analysis controlled for several potentially confounding variables such as latitude, longitude, breeding density and elevation. We conclude that tree swallows across North America are breeding earlier and that the most likely cause is a long-term increase in spring temperature.
越来越多的证据表明，气候变化已经影响了野生动物的繁殖和分布。如果这些变化是由全球变暖引起的，那么我们应该会看到大规模的影响。为了探究对鸟类繁殖的此类影响，我们研究了来自北美各地的3450份树燕巢穴记录。在1959年至1991年期间，树燕的产卵日期提前了多达九天。这种物候变化与繁殖期地表气温升高有关。我们的分析控制了几个潜在的混杂变量，如纬度、经度、繁殖密度和海拔。我们得出结论，北美各地的树燕繁殖时间提前，最可能的原因是春季气温长期上升。
