Azuma Y
Bull World Health Organ. 1975;52(3):313-22.
A large-scale computer service is not always available in many countries with tuberculosis problems needing epidemiological analysis. To facilitate work in such countries, a simple epidemiological model was made to calculate annual trends in the prevalence and incidence of tuberculosis and its infection, in tuberculosis mortality, and in BCG coverage, using average parameter values not specific for age groups or birth year cohorts. To test its approximation capabilities and limits, the model was applied to epidemiological data from Japan, where sufficient information was available from repeated nation-wide sample surveys and national statistics. The approximation was found to be satisfactory within certain limits. The model is best used with a desk-top computer, but the calculations can be performed with a small calculator or even by hand.
在许多存在结核病问题且需要进行流行病学分析的国家，大型计算机服务并不总是可用。为了便于在这些国家开展工作，制作了一个简单的流行病学模型，使用不针对年龄组或出生队列的平均参数值，来计算结核病患病率、发病率、感染情况、结核病死亡率以及卡介苗接种覆盖率的年度趋势。为了测试其近似能力和局限性，该模型应用于来自日本的流行病学数据，在日本，通过全国范围的重复抽样调查和国家统计可获得足够的信息。发现在一定限度内这种近似是令人满意的。该模型最好使用台式计算机运行，但也可以用小型计算器甚至手动进行计算。
