[Verification of tuberculosis prognosis in Poland to the year 2000].

In 1978 year a tuberculosis prognosis in Poland up to 2000 year was prepared in the Institute of Tuberculosis and Lung Diseases in Warsaw, according to epidemiological and epidemiologic-metric model (efficacy of "diagnosis-therapy program" from 60 to 90% and efficacy of BCG vaccination to 60%). The aim of study was to compare epidemiological data for registered tuberculosis cases in 1980-1990 (incidence morbidity and mortality) with the same parameters presented in prognosis for 1980-1991). Efficacy of analyzed programme was similar to predicted values: for incidence of tuberculosis-64%, for morbidity-65% and for mortality-66%.