Olakowski T, Piasecki Z, Szczuka I
Instytutu Gruźlicy i Chorób Płuc w Warszawie.
Pneumonol Alergol Pol. 1993;61(5-6):231-40.
In 1978 year a tuberculosis prognosis in Poland up to 2000 year was prepared in the Institute of Tuberculosis and Lung Diseases in Warsaw, according to epidemiological and epidemiologic-metric model (efficacy of "diagnosis-therapy program" from 60 to 90% and efficacy of BCG vaccination to 60%). The aim of study was to compare epidemiological data for registered tuberculosis cases in 1980-1990 (incidence morbidity and mortality) with the same parameters presented in prognosis for 1980-1991). Efficacy of analyzed programme was similar to predicted values: for incidence of tuberculosis-64%, for morbidity-65% and for mortality-66%.
1978年，华沙结核病与肺部疾病研究所根据流行病学和流行病学计量模型（“诊断-治疗方案”的有效率为60%至90%，卡介苗接种有效率为60%）对波兰直至2000年的结核病预后情况进行了预测。该研究的目的是将1980 - 1990年登记的结核病病例的流行病学数据（发病率和死亡率）与1980 - 1991年预后预测中的相同参数进行比较。分析方案的有效率与预测值相似：结核病发病率为64%，患病率为65%，死亡率为66%。
