Modelling a predictable disaster: the rise and spread of drug-resistantmalaria.

The evolution of drug-resistant malaria is one of the most important factors thwarting the development of effective malaria disease control. Several mathematical models have been developed to try and understand the dynamics of this process and how it can be slowed or even avoided. Much of the mathematics describing the evolution of drug resistance in malaria focuses on the derivation and mechanics of the calculations, which can make it inaccessible to experimentalists and field workers. In this article, Ian Hastings and Umberto D'Alessandro describe general model results without recourse to mathematical details, identify the factors that should be considered in the design of drug control programmes, and discuss the crucial parameters that remain unknown and need to be measured in the field or laboratory.