Kaplan E H, Johri M
Yale School of Management, New Haven, CT 06520-8200, USA.
Health Care Manag Sci. 2000 Jun;3(3):171-83. doi: 10.1023/a:1019001726188.
The goal of "treatment on demand" is to allow all those seeking substance abuse treatment immediate entry into a program. Surprisingly, little is understood regarding the relationship between the demand for treatment, queues, waiting times and treatment admission rates, and treatment capacity. Nor has the increase in treatment capacity required to eliminate drug treatment queues, along with the expected benefits and costs of such an expansion, been studied carefully. In this paper, we present a mathematical model of drug treatment flows for systems where the demand for treatment greatly exceeds available supply. The model produces estimates of queue lengths, waiting times and treatment admission probabilities for any given treatment capacity, and suggests the capacity needed to achieve treatment on demand. The model also enables one to contrast the likely costs and benefits of changes in treatment capacity. We illustrate the model using San Francisco as a case study.
“按需治疗”的目标是让所有寻求药物滥用治疗的人能够立即进入治疗项目。令人惊讶的是，对于治疗需求、排队情况、等待时间与治疗入院率以及治疗能力之间的关系，人们了解甚少。消除药物治疗排队所需的治疗能力增长，以及这种扩张的预期收益和成本，也未得到仔细研究。在本文中，我们针对治疗需求大大超过可用供给的系统，提出了一个药物治疗流程的数学模型。该模型可针对任何给定的治疗能力，估算排队长度、等待时间和治疗入院概率，并给出实现按需治疗所需的能力。该模型还能让人们对比治疗能力变化可能带来的成本和收益。我们以旧金山为例对该模型进行说明。
