Langley J, Mullin B, Jackson R, Norton R
Injury Prevention Research Unit, Dunedin School of Medicine, University, of Otago, New Zealand.
Accid Anal Prev. 2000 Sep;32(5):659-63. doi: 10.1016/s0001-4575(99)00101-3.
Current New Zealand law requires that motorcyclists with a learner or restricted licence ride a motorcycle with an engine capacity of 250 cc or less. Previous research has reported inconsistent findings regarding the relationship between cubic-capacity and risk of a crash. We sought to determine: (1) compliance with the law; (2) if the risk of an injury crash is increased for learner/restricted licence holders who do not comply with the cubic capacity regulations; and (3) whether the risk of an injury crash increases with increasing capacity of the motorcycle. A population-based case-control study was conducted in the Auckland region over a 3 year period from February 1993. Among the controls, 66% were riding motorcycles with a capacity greater than 250 cc. The percentages for those with: full, learner and restricted, and no licence were 82, 29 and 60%, respectively. There was no evidence that learner and restricted licence holders who did not comply with the cubic capacity requirement were at increased risk. It should be noted however, that 75% of those who were complying were doing so on motorcycles of 250 cc or less. Relative to motorcycles of less than 250 cc the risk of an injury crash was elevated by at least 50% for all cubic capacity categories, with the exception of the 251-499 group. There was, however, no consistent pattern of increasing risk as cubic capacity increased. The findings of this study coupled with the fact that cubic capacity is a poor measure of power suggest that, if cubic capacity was to remain the sole basis for restricting learner and restricted licence holders, consideration should be given to having a substantially lower cubic capacity than 250 cc. An analysis of risk in terms of power to weight ratio and style of motorcycle may provide a more useful insight into the benefits of motorcycle design restrictions for novice riders.
新西兰现行法律规定，持有学习驾照或受限驾照的摩托车手驾驶的摩托车发动机排量须为250立方厘米或以下。此前的研究报告了排量与撞车风险之间关系的不一致结果。我们试图确定：（1）法律的遵守情况；（2）不遵守排量规定的学习/受限驾照持有者发生受伤撞车事故的风险是否增加；（3）受伤撞车事故的风险是否随着摩托车排量的增加而增加。1993年2月起的3年时间里，在奥克兰地区开展了一项基于人群的病例对照研究。在对照组中，66%的人驾驶的摩托车排量超过250立方厘米。持有完整驾照、学习驾照和受限驾照以及无驾照者的这一比例分别为82%、29%和60%。没有证据表明不遵守排量要求的学习和受限驾照持有者风险增加。然而，应该注意的是，遵守规定的人中有75%是驾驶250立方厘米或以下的摩托车。相对于排量小于250立方厘米的摩托车，除251 - 499组外，所有排量类别发生受伤撞车事故的风险至少提高了50%。然而，随着排量增加，并没有一致的风险增加模式。这项研究的结果，再加上排量是功率的一个较差衡量指标这一事实表明，如果排量要继续作为限制学习和受限驾照持有者的唯一依据，那么应考虑采用远低于250立方厘米的排量。从功率重量比和摩托车类型方面分析风险，可能会为新手骑手的摩托车设计限制的益处提供更有用的见解。
