Yu T S, Tse L A, Wong T W, Wong S I
Department of Community and Family Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, PRC.
Neuroepidemiology. 2000 Sep-Oct;19(5):265-74. doi: 10.1159/000026264.
This study describes the time trend of cerebrovascular disease (CVD) mortality during the period 1976-1995 in Hong Kong and explores the period and birth cohort effects using Poisson regression models with correction for overdispersion of data. A clear downward trend was observed for age-adjusted CVD mortality rate in both sexes. It decreased from 84 per 100,000 to 41 per 100,000 among men (a 51% drop), and from 56 per 100,000 to 35 per 100,000 among women (a 38% drop). The rate of decline was in general greater in the second decade and among males, resulting in a significant downward trend for the male-to-female rate ratio. Both the period of death and the birth cohort showed a significant effect on the reduction in mortality rates, but the latter seemed to have a more substantial influence. However, an increasing trend was observed among younger males in the second decade, and the protective cohort effect seemed to be waning for the more recent cohorts in both sexes. Closer monitoring of the situation in the next years is warranted.
本研究描述了1976 - 1995年期间香港脑血管疾病（CVD）死亡率的时间趋势，并使用泊松回归模型校正数据的过度离散来探讨时期和出生队列效应。观察到两性年龄调整后的CVD死亡率呈明显下降趋势。男性中该死亡率从每10万人84例降至每10万人41例（下降51%），女性中从每10万人56例降至每10万人35例（下降38%）。下降速度在第二个十年及男性中总体上更大，导致男女死亡率之比呈显著下降趋势。死亡时期和出生队列对死亡率降低均有显著影响，但后者似乎影响更大。然而，在第二个十年中较年轻男性中观察到上升趋势，且两性中较近期队列的保护性队列效应似乎正在减弱。未来几年有必要密切监测这种情况。
