Chung Roger Y, Yip Benjamin H K, Chan Sandra S M, Wong Samuel Y S
JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
Department of Psychiatry, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
Depress Anxiety. 2016 Jun;33(6):558-66. doi: 10.1002/da.22431. Epub 2015 Sep 28.
To examine temporal variations of age, period, and cohort on suicide mortality rate in Hong Kong (HK) from 1976 to 2010, and speculate the macroenvironmental mechanisms of the observed trends.
Poisson age-period-cohort modeling was used to delineate the effects of age, period, and cohort on suicide mortality. Analysis by sex was also conducted to examine if gender difference exists for suicidal behaviours.
Age-cohort model provides the best fit to the mortality data, implying that the cohort effect is likely to explain more of the contributions to HK's suicide mortality pattern than the period effect. Risk of suicide mortality increases nonlinearly with age and accelerates after age 65-69 for both sexes. Moreover, the cohort effects differ between the sexes-risk of mortality increases continually for men born after 1961, but no change is observed for women since the 1941 cohort.
With increased risk of suicide mortality in younger cohorts and the age effect of suicide mortality, we may see future increase in suicide mortality as these younger cohorts age. Further studies are needed to clarify plausible associations between broader sociohistorical changes in the population impacting psychological risk factors and suicidal behaviour to better inform suicide prevention strategies.
研究1976年至2010年香港自杀死亡率的年龄、时期和队列的时间变化，并推测观察到的趋势的宏观环境机制。
采用泊松年龄-时期-队列模型来描述年龄、时期和队列对自杀死亡率的影响。还按性别进行了分析，以检查自杀行为是否存在性别差异。
年龄-队列模型最适合死亡率数据，这意味着队列效应可能比时期效应更能解释香港自杀死亡率模式的贡献。自杀死亡率风险随年龄呈非线性增加，65 - 69岁后男女自杀死亡率风险均加速上升。此外，两性的队列效应不同——1961年后出生的男性死亡率风险持续增加，但自1941年队列以来女性未观察到变化。
由于年轻队列中自杀死亡率风险增加以及自杀死亡率的年龄效应，随着这些年轻队列年龄增长，我们可能会看到未来自杀死亡率上升。需要进一步研究以阐明影响心理风险因素的人群中更广泛的社会历史变化与自杀行为之间的合理关联，从而更好地为自杀预防策略提供信息。
