Adanja B, Gledovic Z, Pekmezovic T, Vlajinac H, Jarebinski M, Zivaljevic V, Pavlovic M
Institute of Epidemiology, School of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Yugoslavia.
Dig Liver Dis. 2000 Jun-Jul;32(5):386-91. doi: 10.1016/s1590-8658(00)80258-3.
To analyse mortality trends of malignant digestive tract tumours.
Population of Belgrade (Yugoslavia) in the period 1975-1997. Mortality rates were standardized by direct method using world population as the standard. For time series, exponential trends were calculated by the use of three-year moving average rates.
In males, the highest mortality rate was for stomach cancer: 14. 6 per 100,000 (average for the period 1975-1997), followed by cancer of liver and cancer of colon: 8.4/100,000, cancer of rectum: 8.1/100,000, cancer of pancreas: 7.3/100,000, oesophageal cancer: 2.8/100,000 and gallbladder cancer: 2.0/100,000. In males, upward mortality trends for carcinomas of colon, rectum, pancreas, oesophagus, gallbladder and bile ducts were observed. The mortality rates series for stomach cancer and liver cancer did not fit any usual trend function. In females, the highest mortality rate was also for stomach cancer 7.7 per 100,000, then for cancer of colon: 6.0/100,000, cancer of rectum: 5.3/100,000, cancer of liver: 4.4/100,000, cancer of pancreas: 4.4/100,000, gallbladder cancer 3.4/100,000 and oesophageal cancer: 0.8/100,000. In females, upward mortality trends were observed for colon and rectal cancer, cancer of pancreas, and gallbladder and bile duct cancer. Downward mortality trends were present for stomach cancer and liver cancer. Mortality rates series for oesophageal cancer did not fit any usual trend function.
In the majority of digestive tracts cancers, an upward mortality trend was observed which is in keeping with the mortality trends of these malignant tumours in many other countries.
分析恶性消化道肿瘤的死亡率趋势。
以1975 - 1997年期间南斯拉夫贝尔格莱德的人口为研究对象。死亡率采用直接法以世界人口为标准进行标准化。对于时间序列，通过使用三年移动平均率计算指数趋势。
男性中，死亡率最高的是胃癌：每10万人中有14.6例（1975 - 1997年期间的平均值），其次是肝癌和结肠癌：8.4/10万，直肠癌：8.1/10万，胰腺癌：7.3/10万，食管癌：2.8/10万，胆囊癌：2.0/10万。在男性中，观察到结肠癌、直肠癌、胰腺癌、食管癌、胆囊癌和胆管癌的死亡率呈上升趋势。胃癌和肝癌的死亡率序列不符合任何常见的趋势函数。女性中，死亡率最高的也是胃癌，每10万人中有7.7例，其次是结肠癌：6.0/10万，直肠癌：5.3/10万，肝癌：4.4/10万，胰腺癌：4.4/10万，胆囊癌：3.4/10万，食管癌：0.8/10万。在女性中，观察到结肠癌、直肠癌、胰腺癌、胆囊癌和胆管癌的死亡率呈上升趋势。胃癌和肝癌的死亡率呈下降趋势。食管癌的死亡率序列不符合任何常见的趋势函数。
在大多数消化道癌症中，观察到死亡率呈上升趋势，这与许多其他国家这些恶性肿瘤的死亡率趋势一致。
