Marković-Denić Ljiljana, Vlajinac Hristina, Zivković Snezana, Miljus Dragan
Institute of Epidemiology, School of Medicine, Belgrade University, Visegradska 26, Belgrade, Serbia.
Croat Med J. 2008 Dec;49(6):792-8. doi: 10.3325/cmj.2008.49.792.
To analyze cancer mortality trends in men in Central Serbia during 1985-2006 period.
Mortality rates and trends for the most frequent cancers in men (lung, stomach, colorectal, pancreatic, and prostate cancer) were calculated. Mortality rates for all cancers were adjusted by direct standardization. Percentage changes of the rates were calculated as the percentage difference between the rates of two successive years and then as a mean of these changes for the entire observed period. Trend lines were estimated using linear regression.
Total cancer mortality in men increased, with mean percentage of annual changes being 1.53% (95% confidence interval [CI], -0.09-3.16). Lung, stomach, colorectal, pancreatic, and prostate cancers represented 58.1% and 61.6% of total cancer deaths in 1985 and 2006, respectively. Increasing trends were observed for all investigated cancers: mean annual percentage change for lung cancer was 2.31%(95% CI, 1.03-3.59), for colorectal cancer 2.23% (95% CI, -0.18-4.65), for prostate cancer 3.06% (95% CI, -2.07-8.18), and for pancreatic cancer 1.58% (95% CI, -2.17-5.32). Stomach cancer mortality significantly decreased in age groups 40-49 and 50-59 years.
The most frequent cancers in men in Central Serbia, i.e., lung, colorectal, prostate, and pancreatic cancer, showed an increasing trend. Only stomach cancer mortality decreased over time.
分析1985 - 2006年期间塞尔维亚中部男性的癌症死亡率趋势。
计算男性中最常见癌症（肺癌、胃癌、结直肠癌、胰腺癌和前列腺癌）的死亡率及趋势。所有癌症的死亡率通过直接标准化进行调整。将比率的百分比变化计算为连续两年比率之间的百分比差异，然后计算整个观察期内这些变化的平均值。使用线性回归估计趋势线。
男性总癌症死亡率上升，年平均变化百分比为1.53%（95%置信区间[CI]，-0.09 - 3.16）。肺癌、胃癌、结直肠癌、胰腺癌和前列腺癌分别占1985年和2006年癌症死亡总数的58.1%和61.6%。所有调查的癌症均呈现上升趋势：肺癌的年平均变化百分比为2.31%（95% CI，1.03 - 3.59），结直肠癌为2.23%（95% CI，-0.18 - 4.65），前列腺癌为3.06%（95% CI，-2.07 - 8.18），胰腺癌为1.58%（95% CI，-2.17 - 5.32）。40 - 49岁和50 - 59岁年龄组的胃癌死亡率显著下降。
塞尔维亚中部男性中最常见的癌症，即肺癌、结直肠癌、前列腺癌和胰腺癌，呈上升趋势。只有胃癌死亡率随时间下降。
